Weekend forecast 9/25-9/28: Mix of clouds and sun, breezy with a double shot of cooler air

Warm, sunny, and calm conditions from the work week will give way Fri. to breezy conditions and cooler temps, persisting throughout the weekend into early next week.

Fri, 9/25/2026: 6:00am - Sat, 9/26/26: 6:00am
	Temps. (Max/Min)	Wind	Cloud Cover	Precip. Prob.	Precip. Amount	Precip. Type	Notes
7000-8500'	Max: 58-62° Min: 38-44°	SW @ 15-25mph w/gusts 30mph+, slackening overnight Fri.	Scattered	<5%	n/a	n/a	Brisk SW winds Fri with approaching dry cold front and cooler temps
8500-10k'	Max: 48-57° Min: 36-41°	SW @ 20-30mph w/ gusts to 50+mph	Scattered	<5%	n/a	n/a	Temps may fall further in wind protected drainages and depressions Fri night/Sat AM

Sat, 9/26/2026: 6:00am - Sun, 9/27/26: 6:00am
	Temps. (Max/Min)	Wind	Cloud Cover	Precip. Prob.	Precip. Amount	Precip. Type	Notes
7000-8500'	Max: 58-63° Min: 39-44°	SW @ 15-20mph with gusts to 30mph through Sat night.	Scattered increasing in PM	<5%	n/a	n/a	Winds and clouds increase Sat.
8500-10k'	Max: 51-57° Min: 38-45°	SW @ 20-30mph w/ gusts to 45mph	Scattered increasing in PM	<5%	n/a	n/a	Winds increase and become gusty Sat along ridgetops.

Sun, 9/27/2026: 6:00am - Mon, 9/28/26: 6:00am
	Temps. (Max/Min)	Wind	Cloud Cover	Precip. Prob.	Precip. Amount	Precip. Type	Notes
7000-8500'	Max: 51-56° Min: 35-40°	SW @ 10-20mph decreasing and becoming light SE - E overnight	Scattered overcast becoming mostly clear	10%	n/a	rain	Slight chance of scattered sprinkle Sun PM. Freezing temps possible Mon AM in valleys and depressions
8500-10k'	Max: 43-49° Min: 30-35°	SW @ 20-30mph w/ gusts to 35mph	Scattered overcast becoming mostly clear	10-20%	n/a	rain/snow	Slight chance of scattered shower/flurry Sun PM. Freezing temps possible Mon AM in valleys and depressions

Backcountry Conditions:

Peak dust is still the name of the game on trails across the Tahoe Sierra. Convective showers earlier this week dropped a few sprinkles on isolated locations, but nothing to improve trail conditions. However, fall foliage has begun to pop, especially above 8500' and in sheltered nooks and crannies even down to 6500'. A blight of some sort turned many of the aspens grey and dull over the summer, but they are still finding a way to show off brilliant, quaking gold leaves across the backcountry.

Forecast Analysis:

The active late summer/early fall pattern that's dominated the area for the past few weeks continues this weekend. After a few days of warm, sunny and calm conditions, a ridge of high pressure gives way on Friday to a trough of low pressure skimming the region from the NW, bringing increased SW winds, cooler temperatures, mountain wave clouds and even some elevated fire danger east of the Sierra.

Low level water vapor imagery with 500mb winds and heights showing a trough approaching at 5am PDT on 9/25.

Storm Prediction Center fire wx. outlook for 9/25.

Despite some modest moisture with this first system, models agree that with the bulk of the energy remaining far to the north, precip. chances will be nearly nil for the Sierra. The dynamics to squeeze out what meager moisture arrives just won't be there.

High-res 3km NAM showing 500mb heights, wind, and vorticity (dynamics) for 5am PDT on 9/25 - 5am PDT on 9/26.

ECMWF PWAT (precipitable water) analysis showing modest moisture arriving with the first system between 5am PDT on 9/25 and 5am PDT on 9/26.

Temps rebound slightly on Sat. in the wake of Friday's system, but later in the day winds and cloud cover will increase once again as a more robust system takes a more direct track into California.

ECMWF 500mb heights, winds and vorticity (dynamics) for 9/27 at 2am PDT - 9/28 at 8am PDT.

The second system hitting late Sat. into Sun. will have better dynamics, colder air, and a bit more moisture than the earlier brush by disturbance earlier in the weekend.

ECMWF PWAT (precipitable water) anomaly for 9/27 at 2am PDT - 9/28 at 8am PDT.

These elements should combine to bring increased cloud cover, an uptick to winds and further cooling for Sat. night through Sun. Highs on Sun. will feel fall-like and brisk under broken overcast skies, likely breaking during the evening. As winds decrease, skies clear, and cold air filters in overnight Sun. into Mon., expect valleys and drainages to drop below freezing, while ridgetop and midslope zones remain a few degrees warmer in the mid 30s.

Looking ahead to early next week, after a cooler than normal start on Mon., ensembles suggest a ridge of high pressure moving into the area through at least mid week. This would bring back another round of warm sunny days and cool crisp nights with generally light winds.

Euro ensemble guidance showing 500mb height anomalies for Mon., 9/28 at 5am PDT to Fri., 10/2 at 5pm PDT.